Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 12 | 16.4 | 11% | 181 | 1.57% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 22.0 | 13.6% | 223 | 1.64% |
| 20-29 | 23 | 27.4 | 18.4% | 302 | 1.44% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 27.9 | 19.2% | 316 | 2.32% |
| 40-49 | 17 | 20.9 | 13.4% | 220 | 2.1% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 16.1 | 11.1% | 183 | 1.46% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 10.4 | 6.7% | 111 | 0.96% |
| 70+ | 10 | 10.6 | 6.5% | 107 | 1.02% |
| All ages | 110 | 152.0 | 100% | 1645 | 1.57% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25 | 27599 | 72114 | 662 | 171 | 2579 |
| Jan 26 | 27854 | 72332 | 664 | 171 | 2574 |
| Jan 27 | 28043 | 72485 | 664 | 171 | 2559 |
| Jan 28 | 28244 | 72635 | 666 | 172 | 2413 |
| Jan 29 | 28342 | 72734 | 667 | 172 | 2090 |
| Jan 30 | 28411 | 72787 | 667 | 172 | 1833 |
| Jan 31 | 28521 | 72842 | 669 | 172 | 1645 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25 | 17371 | 41472 | 653 | 158 | 1506 |
| Jan 26 | 17510 | 41605 | 653 | 160 | 1553 |
| Jan 27 | 17593 | 41676 | 654 | 162 | 1522 |
| Jan 28 | 17689 | 41735 | 656 | 162 | 1403 |
| Jan 29 | 17739 | 41788 | 656 | 162 | 1216 |
| Jan 30 | 17776 | 41830 | 658 | 162 | 1050 |
| Jan 31 | 17820 | 41873 | 659 | 162 | 941 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 8.1 | 8.9% | 84 | 1.08% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 9.1 | 11.8% | 111 | 1.32% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 11.7 | 15% | 141 | 1.98% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 12.4 | 18.9% | 178 | 2.12% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 12.7 | 16.4% | 154 | 1.98% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 10.3 | 13.3% | 125 | 1.29% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 7.7 | 8.5% | 80 | 0.95% |
| 70+ | 2 | 6.0 | 7.2% | 68 | 0.96% |
| All ages | 44 | 78.1 | 100% | 941 | 1.46% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25 | 12569 | 27558 | 510 | 128 | 798 |
| Jan 26 | 12655 | 27605 | 510 | 128 | 821 |
| Jan 27 | 12741 | 27702 | 510 | 128 | 852 |
| Jan 28 | 12823 | 27752 | 511 | 128 | 844 |
| Jan 29 | 12852 | 27787 | 511 | 128 | 771 |
| Jan 30 | 12888 | 27806 | 511 | 128 | 695 |
| Jan 31 | 12903 | 27839 | 512 | 128 | 598 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 5.9 | 10.4% | 62 | 1.14% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 5.7 | 9.4% | 56 | 1.03% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 9.7 | 15.7% | 94 | 2.08% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 9.7 | 15.6% | 93 | 1.71% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 7.3 | 13.2% | 79 | 1.59% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 8.0 | 12% | 72 | 1.06% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 6.9 | 12.7% | 76 | 1.2% |
| 70+ | 4 | 6.0 | 11% | 66 | 1.04% |
| All ages | 15 | 59.1 | 100% | 598 | 1.32% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25 | 31513 | 87863 | 933 | 153 | 3497 |
| Jan 26 | 31813 | 88167 | 933 | 153 | 3538 |
| Jan 27 | 32056 | 88426 | 935 | 153 | 3467 |
| Jan 28 | 32238 | 88656 | 936 | 153 | 3142 |
| Jan 29 | 32311 | 88778 | 937 | 153 | 2683 |
| Jan 30 | 32379 | 88887 | 943 | 153 | 2211 |
| Jan 31 | 32571 | 89018 | 943 | 153 | 2112 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 30 | 28.7 | 14.9% | 315 | 2.66% |
| 10-19 | 35 | 35.3 | 18.4% | 389 | 2.35% |
| 20-29 | 22 | 29.6 | 14.6% | 309 | 1.45% |
| 30-39 | 26 | 33.0 | 17.2% | 363 | 2.67% |
| 40-49 | 29 | 27.7 | 13.2% | 279 | 2.05% |
| 50-59 | 24 | 20.6 | 10.2% | 215 | 1.52% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 11.4 | 6.3% | 133 | 0.94% |
| 70+ | 12 | 10.1 | 5.1% | 107 | 0.82% |
| All ages | 192 | 196.7 | 100% | 2112 | 1.79% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25 | 111758 | 481025 | 2494 | 457 | 27151 |
| Jan 26 | 112751 | 482094 | 2500 | 457 | 15296 |
| Jan 27 | 113684 | 483161 | 2507 | 457 | 12015 |
| Jan 28 | 114326 | 483933 | 2509 | 457 | 11251 |
| Jan 29 | 114861 | 484535 | 2510 | 457 | 8742 |
| Jan 30 | 115235 | 484991 | 2513 | 457 | 7618 |
| Jan 31 | 115660 | 485460 | 2534 | 457 | 6995 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 67 | 131.6 | 19.1% | 1335 | 2.22% |
| 10-19 | 73 | 105.6 | 15.1% | 1056 | 1.49% |
| 20-29 | 81 | 106.9 | 14.6% | 1019 | 0.98% |
| 30-39 | 67 | 121.3 | 17.7% | 1241 | 1.62% |
| 40-49 | 57 | 91.1 | 13.6% | 953 | 1.45% |
| 50-59 | 33 | 62.3 | 9.4% | 661 | 1.01% |
| 60-69 | 25 | 41.1 | 6.1% | 429 | 0.78% |
| 70+ | 22 | 31.3 | 4.3% | 300 | 0.61% |
| All ages | 425 | 691.3 | 100% | 6995 | 1.28% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25 | 1485631 | 4049168 | 59455 | 12404 | 150500 |
| Jan 26 | 1494906 | 4057598 | 59582 | 12418 | 114716 |
| Jan 27 | 1503169 | 4066141 | 59702 | 12431 | 103663 |
| Jan 28 | 1509627 | 4073008 | 59787 | 12442 | 95299 |
| Jan 29 | 1513864 | 4078131 | 59843 | 12450 | 81484 |
| Jan 30 | 1516498 | 4081669 | 59899 | 12452 | 71048 |
| Jan 31 | 1520640 | 4086092 | 60256 | 12453 | 63682 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 551 | 821.9 | 13% | 8303 | 1.3% |
| 10-19 | 529 | 868.4 | 13.9% | 8866 | 1.17% |
| 20-29 | 566 | 853.7 | 13.7% | 8721 | 1.15% |
| 30-39 | 646 | 1059.7 | 17% | 10838 | 1.43% |
| 40-49 | 564 | 886.9 | 14.2% | 9023 | 1.29% |
| 50-59 | 514 | 769.6 | 12.3% | 7855 | 0.96% |
| 60-69 | 432 | 561.4 | 8.9% | 5684 | 0.75% |
| 70+ | 332 | 432.9 | 6.8% | 4346 | 0.68% |
| All ages | 4142 | 6259.6 | 100% | 63682 | 1.09% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-02-22 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 13517"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges